Tlaleho ea morao tjena ea Wood Mackenzie e sheba mekhoa le liqholotso 'marakeng o ntseng o hola oa letsatsi la US, ho kenyeletsoa tlhahiso e khothaletsoang ke Molao oa Phokotso ea Litheko tsa Amerika.
Ho tsoa makasineng ea pv USA
Molao oa Phokotso ea Litheko oa Amerika oa 2022 o na le $370 bilione ea tšebeliso ea matla a ka nchafatsoang le mehato ea boemo ba leholimo.Bili e kenyelletsa chelete e fetang $60 bilione bakeng satlhahiso ea malapengho pholletsa le ketane e hloekileng ea phepelo ea matla.Boemo bona ba nalane ba matsete ke senotlolo sa ho fihlela boikemelo ba tlhahiso ea Amerika le polokeho ea matla a hloekileng.
Tlaleho ea morao-rao e tsoang ho Wood Mackenzie e bonts'a hore bahlahisi, likhamphani tsa kaho ea thepa ea boenjiniere (EPCs) le bahlahisi ba tla batla tataiso ho tsoa Lefapheng la Lichelete la US le IRS bakeng sa ho hlaka molemong oa ho rala leano la nts'etsopele ea letsatsi le matsete a macha litsing tse ncha tsa tlhahiso. ka hare ho United States.
Tlaleho e sheba maemo a indasteri ena e ntseng e hola, ho kenyelletsa ho tsepamisa maikutlo ho li-module tsa TOPCon holim'a heterojunction (HJT), kholo ea 'maraka oa lefats'e oa li-inverter tsa bolulo, katoloso ea tlhahiso ea tracker, ho theoha ho lebelletsoeng ha litšenyehelo tsa projeke ea letsatsi le ho sheba mathata a tlang pele. .
TOPcon khahlano le PERC
TOPCon, e emelang tunnel oxide passivated contacts, e lebelletsoe ho feta heterojunction (HJT), mme tlaleho ea Wood Mackenzie e bolela hore mono PERC "ke theknoloji e lekanyang kholo le katleho", e bontšang hore TOPCon e na le bokhoni bo phahameng ka ho fetisisa ba ho hōla ka lebaka la ts'ebetso. ntlafatso le ho ntlafatsa litšenyehelo.
"Mohloli oa PERCtheknoloji ea panele boetse e na le mokhoa o potlakileng oa ho ithuta 'me ho leka-lekana pakeng tsa bona ho tla itšetleha ka hore na ke ofe ea tla khona ho eketsa katleho ea eona kapa ho fokotsa litšenyehelo ka potlako ho feta e' ngoe," Stefan Gunz, hlooho ea lipatlisiso tsa photovoltaics Setsing sa Jeremane sa Fraunhofer bakeng sa Solar Energy Systems. (ISE), e boletsemakasine ea pvselemo se fetileng.
Bahlahlobisisi ba Wood Mackenzie ba hakanya hore li-module tsa TOPCon li fihletse katleho ea 25% tlhahisong ea bongata mme li ka nyolohela ho 28.7%.
Ho ntlafatsa tlhahiso ho tloha tlhahisong ea mono PERC ho ea ho TOPCon ke letsete le bonolo le le batlang le le theko e tlase, 'me bahlahlobisisi ba hakanya hore katleho ea lab ea 27% e ka finyelloa ka lintlafatso tsa metallization le li-wafers tse tšesaane.Wood Mackenzie o hlokometse hore bahlahisi ba bang ba lebelletse hore botenya ba "wafer" bo tloaelehileng bakeng sa li-module tsa TOPCon tsa sebopeho se seholo bo fokotsehile ka 20 μm selemong sena ho isa ho 120 μm, e tla fokotsa boholo ba litheko ka 2023.
Molao wa Phokotso ya Ditheko o hlohlelletsa tlhahiso ya mojule wa US ka lebaka la $30 bilione ya mekitlane ya lekgetho la tlhahiso mmoho le mokoloto wa lekgetho wa matsete wa $10 bilione ho aha meaho e hlwekileng ya tlhahiso ya thekenoloji.Wood Mackenzie o lebeletse USbokhoni ba tlhahiso ea moduleho feta 15 GW mafelong a selemo sena.
Leha ho le joalo, potso e kholo ke tlhaloso ea "lisebelisoa tse entsoeng malapeng", le hore na ho bolela hore li-module li bokane United States, kapa haeba likarolo tsohle li etsoa US.Phephetso bakeng sa baetsi ba li-module ke hore ha ho na tlhahiso ea li-wafer kapa lisele tsa US, leha seo se ntse se fetoha le liphatlalatso tsa morao-rao tsa lik'hamphani tse kenyelletsang Qcells le CubicPV.Phapang ea tlhaloso ea litaba tsa lehae "e ka ama haholo bokhoni ba tlhahiso ea module lilemong tse hlano tse tlang", tlaleho e hanyetsa.Bahlahlobisisi ba hakanya hore hoo e ka bang 45 GWdc ea liphatlalatso tse ncha tsa bokhoni li tla tla inthaneteng ka 2026.
Kholo e lebelletsoeng ea letsatsi ho la US e tla phalla ka har'a ketane ea phepelo, e eketsa kholo ea li-inverters le li-tracker, har'a likarolo tse ling tse tšehetsang.Tlaleho ea Wood Mackenzie e hlokomela hore liphetoho tsa morao-rao tsa leano, ho kenyeletsoa REPowerEU ea EU, ts'ebetsong ea India ea Production Linked Incentives (PLI) le US IRA, li tla potlakisa ho amoheloa ha letsatsi linaheng tsena, ka hona ho thusa linaha ho fihlela lipheo tsa tsona tse felletseng.
Ho ea ka tlaleho, 'maraka oa inverter oa bolulo o tla hōla ho pholletsa le lefats'e ka 2023. Ha letsatsi le marulelong le ntse le eketseha, haholo-holo linaheng tse kang India le Jeremane, ho tla ba le matla a tšoanang 'marakeng bakeng sa li-microinverters, string inverters le DC optimizers. Likhetho tse tsebahalang haholo tsa inverter bakeng sa ho kenya marulelo a marulelo.Haholo-holo, li-inverters tsa likhoele tse nang le li-multiple maximum power point trackers (MPPTs) li tla bona ho ata ha mmaraka ka 2023.
Li-inverters tsa bolulo li tla bona ts'ebeliso e ntseng e eketseha ea bohlale ba maiketsetso ho algorithms ea eona.Li-module-level power electronics (MLPEs) le li-inverters tsa thapo tsa mohato o le mong, tse tummeng ka ho fetisisa marulelong a marulelo a letsatsi, li tla bona karolo ea 11% ea 'maraka ho thepa ea lefatše ka bophara ka 2023. Tlhahiso ea li-inverter e tla eketseha ka libapali tse kholo tse eketsang mela ea tlhahiso le ba kenang ba bacha. ho kenella 'marakeng, mme tlholisano e latelang e tla baka ho theoha ha theko ho tloha ho 2% ho isa ho 4% ka 2023.
Phephetso e tsoelang pele bakeng sa bahlahisi ba li-inverter ke khaello ea lefats'e ea li-chip, eo bahlahlobisisi ba Wood Mackenzie ba lebelletseng ho tsoela pele ka 2023 le ho tšela ka 2024. Khaello e bakile hore baetsi ba li-inverter ba fumane li-chips ho bahlahisi ba maemo a tlase pele ba etsa liteko tse matla ka tlung. ho netefatsa boleng ba li-inverters tsa bona, ts'ebetso le nako ea bophelo.Wood Mac o bolela esale pele hore theko ea inverter e ke ke ea theoha ho fihlela hamorao selemong sena.
Tlhahiso ea lehae ea li-tracker e ntse e eketseha likarolong tse 'maloa tsa lefats'e ka lebaka la likhothatso tsa mmuso hammoho le mathata a amanang le thepa nakong ea seoa sa COVID-19.Ho latela bahlahlobisisi ba Wood Mackenzie, litheko tsa tracker li tla theoha India le United States.Ba lebeletse botsitso bo eketsehileng phepelong ea tšepe United States le India, haholo-holo ka katoloso ea tlhahiso ea tšepe e teng.Europe, leha ho le joalo, e ntse e tla tobana le ho se leka-lekane 'marakeng oa tšepe.Kaha ho feta 60% ea sebopeho sa tracker e le tšepe, ho phahama hona ha tlhokahalo ea tšepe ho tla fella ka tlholisano e ntseng e eketseha ea karolo ea 'maraka oa barekisi bakeng sa barekisi, ho bolela bahlahlobisisi ba Wood Mackenzie, ba rera hore litheko tsa 2023 tsa li-trackers li tla theoha ka 5% United States, Brazil le. China.
Litšenyehelo tsa letsatsi
Litšenyehelo tsa lichelete tsa lichelete li tla tsoela pele ho theoha, tse tsamaisoang ka karolo e 'ngoe ke tšebeliso e eketsehileng ea li-module tsa TOPcon.Bahlahlobisisi ba Wood Mackenzie le bona ba lebelletse hore litheko tsa polysilicon li tla theoha selemong sena mme ba hakanya hore tse teng300 GWmatla a lefats'e a tla fihla ho 900 GW bofelong ba 2023.
"Re bolela esale pele hore katoloso ea Mt ea polysilicon e fetang limilione tse 1 e tla kena inthaneteng ka 2023. Boholo ba matla a macha a tla ba Chaena.Leha ho le joalo, re lumela hore hoo e ka bang 10% e reretsoeng ho ba ka ntle ho China e ka laela tefiso ea theko kaha e kanna ea se be le litefiso le likotsi tse ling tsa maano.
Phephetso e ntseng e tsoela pele ke ho se tiisehe mabapi le litefiso tsa litefiso tsa antidumping/countervailing (AD/CVD).Kaha Lefapha la Khoebo la U.S. le lebelletsoe ho phatlalatsa qeto ea lona ea ho qetela ka Mots'eanong 2023, Wood Mackenzie o hakanya hore mesebetsi e ka tloha ho 16% ho isa ho 254% ho ipapisitse le naha eo ba tsoang ho eona.Qeto ea pele, e lokollotsoeng ka Tšitoe 2022, e fumane lik'hamphani tse maemong a 1, joalo ka Trina, BYD, Vina (sehlopha sa Longi) le Canadian Solar, tse nyenyefatsang litefiso tsa China.Boikemisetso ba pele bo hlakotse Hanwha le Jinko e leng se tla fella ka ho imolla ho fumaneha ha module ka 2023.
United States, bahlahisi ba tla tsoelapele ho tsepamisa maikutlo ho litlhoko tsa IRA, ho kenyeletsoa le tlatsetso e ntseng e le teng ea moputso le litaba tsa lehae bakeng sa merero ea boemo bo holimo e qalang kaho ka 2023. koloto, merero eohle e kholo ho feta 1 MWac e tlameha ho lefa basebetsi ba eona moputso o teng le ho theha lenaneo la boithuto.
Europe, leano la REPowerEU le ikemiselitse ho kenya 320 GW ea PV ea letsatsi ka 2025 le 600 GW tlas'a leano la eona la EU la matla a letsatsi.Ho fihlela lipehelo tsena tse kholo, e hloka ho aha setsi se matla sa tlhahiso kahare ho tikoloho.European Solar Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, e tla theha moralo oa ho thusa ho boloka lichelete bakeng sa tlhahiso le ho khothaletsa lipatlisiso le popontšuoa ea theknoloji ea module, har'a litheknoloji tse ling tsa zero-carbon.
Phephetso ea ho qetela ea hoTlhahiso ea PVEurope, ho ea ka bahlahlobisisi ba Wood Mackenzie, ke tlholisano ea litšenyehelo e tsoang sebakeng sa APAC ka lebaka la litšenyehelo tse phahameng tsa matla, mosebetsi le thepa, empa e ka rua molemo ho bareki ba ikemiselitseng ho lefa tefiso ea theknoloji e ntle le ponaletso ho phepelo ea thepa.
Nako ea poso: Jan-29-2023